Europe becomes the main importer of U.S. LNG and further increases its import capacity
In the first three months of 2019 the three U.S. export terminals in operation shipped about 4.4 bcm (billion cubic meters) of natural gas to Europe. For the time being, European importers became the main outlet for U.S. LNG, relegating Asian customers to second place. Except for Lithuania, all European countries (incl. Turkey) with large-scale import infrastructure have already received cargoes from the U.S. this year, including for the first time Greece and Belgium. The main European import countries were France, Spain and Italy.The increase in European imports of U.S. LNG concurs with a decreasing spread between Asian and European prices which has been almost zero since the beginning of 2019. From the perspective of U.S. exporters, this development increases the attractiveness of the European market due to the shorter transport distance to Europe compared to Asia.
Concerning the development of the European import infrastructure for LNG, two investment decisions have been taken so far this year – both receiving financial support from the EU. The projects concern the capacity increase of the Polish LNG terminal in Świnoujście and the construction of an LNG import terminal on the Croatian island of Krk.
In the course of the trade dispute between the U.S. and China, Europe is a welcome outlet for U.S. export volumes. While China has risen to be the second largest importer of LNG after Japan only two cargoes with U.S. LNG have arrived at Chinese import terminals since January this year. Currently, China levies a 10% tariff on imports of U.S. LNG and considers increasing this tariff further.
Current filling levels of natural gas storages
Team Consult analysis 2019 confirms significant growth of the German energy storage industry
The German energy storage industry is still on track. Team Consult has conducted an analysis of the German energy storage market in cooperation with the German Energy Storage Association (BVES) and confirms the growth of the previous year impressively: The German energy storage industry has exceeded the revenue mark of 5 billion Euros in 2018. What's next? What are the challenges of the years to come?
More information can be found here.
Prices for power control reserve
Since the beginning of 2019, prices for Frequency Containment Reserve (FCR) have been continuously quoted below the level of the previous year. Average prices have been below 2000 €/MW since the end of January and dropped to a value of 1389 €/MW in the last week of February, thus only marginally above the historical minimum value of 1337 €/MW.
The prolonged price depression has undermined the primary business model of large-scale battery systems, thus causing a stagnation of new projects in the German market.
Trading Activity at the TTF
The trend of falling prices at Western European hubs continued in February 2019. The front month contract with delivery at the TTF changed hands at 22.51 EUR/MWh with start of the year and closed at 17.65 EUR/MWh on February 28th. This price level was last seen about one year ago. Above average temperatures during the usually coldest month of the year led to weak demand, while supply with pipeline gas and LNG was plentiful. Traded volumes were slightly below previous month’s level.
Results of the auctions for onshore wind energy
On February 15th, the German Federal Network Agency (Bundesnetzagentur) published statistical data for the first auction for onshore wind energy plants in 2019 (published in German). 72 bids were submitted to this auction according to the Renewable Energy Sources Act 2017(EEG), which took place in February 2019. The number of bids remains thus low, despite a slight increase with respect to the previous round (62 bids). Five submitted bids had to be excluded from the auction, resulting in an exclusion rate of 7%. All of the remaining 67 bids received an award, corresponding to a success rate of 93%.
The average award value amounted to 6.11 €ct/kWh and was thus again only slightly below the bid limit, which was specified at 6.20 €ct/kWh by the Federal Network Agency.
Results of the auctions for photovoltaic installations
On February 15th, the German Federal Network Agency (Bundesnetzagentur) published the results of the first auction for photovoltaic (PV) installations in 2019 (published in German). 80 bids were submitted to the auction, which took place in February 2019. This means a slight increase with respect to the previous round (76 bids).
Two of the submitted bids had to be excluded from the auction. The resulting exclusion rate of 3% is thus again very low. In the end, 24 bids received an award, corresponding to a success rate of 30% – significantly less than in previous rounds. The majority of awards (21) were granted to bids for plants on farmland in Bavaria.
The average award value amounted to 4.80 €ct/kWh, slightly above the value of the previous round (4.69 €ct/kWh). The lowest successful bid value was 4.11 €ct/kWh. The bid limit was specified at 8.91 €ct/kWh according to the EEG 2017.
Filling levels of natural gas storages in January 2019
At the beginning of January, German gas storage facilities had an aggregated filling level of 75 percent (174 TWh), a good 9 percentage points above the previous year's level. Over the course of the month, the level fell by 12 percentage points to 61 percent (142 TWh). This figure was still a good 9 percentage points above the level at the same time last year.
Looking at the daily withdrawals, January showed a divided picture. In the first half of the month, up to 1.4 TWh per day were withdrawn at peak times. In the second half of the month, temperatures dropped and withdrawals increased significantly, peaking at up to 2.1 TWh per day.
Solar & wind load vs. intraday power price
The December is naturally marked by low solar power generation. During the middle of the month wind power production was also relatively low. Between 11th and 20th of December the daily average intraday power prices (15-minute contracts) was continuously above 50 €/MWh with a maximum of more than 100 €/MWh on December 14th.
On December 9th, however wind power generation was especially high. On that day the average price fell below zero Euro/MWh.
New EU emission limits for capacity mechanisms
At the end of December, the EU institutions have provisionally agreed on new rules for future back-up power plants. According to the new regulation, power stations emitting more than 550 grams of CO2 per kilowatt hour of electricity shall not be eligible to be used in regulated capacity markets.
Team Consult has performed a brief analysis on the effects of the new EU rules on the German power market. The article was published on the energy information portal www.europeangashub.com. It can also be downloaded free of charge via the link below.
Results of the auctions for CHP plants
On December 12th, the German Federal Network Agency (Bundesnetzagentur) published the results of the third auction for combined heat and power (CHP) plants according to the Combined Heat and Power Act (KWKG) (published in German). Following the initial publication, the results were modified on December 17th.
18 bids were submitted to the auction, which took place in December 2018. This is an increase with respect to the previous round (15 bids), even though the tendered volume of 77 MW was significantly below the value of the previous auction (93 MW). With 126 MW, the total bid volume was above the previous value (96 MW) as well.
Three submitted bids had to be excluded from the auction. 12 of the remaining 15 bids received an award, corresponding to a success rate of 67%.
The average award value amounted to 4.77 €ct/kWh and has thus increased by about 11% with respect to the previous round. The lowest award value was 3.49 €ct/kWh, the highest award value 5.25 €ct/kWh. In spite of the relatively low competition, the award values were thus again considerably below the bid limit of 7 €ct/kWh.
Amendments to the Combined Heat and Power Act: New Opportunities for CHP plants?
On last Thursday (14 December 2018), the Federal Council of Germany announced its final approval for the so-called “Energiesammelgesetz”, which had been previously passed by the German Federal Parliament. The bill will enact extensive changes to the German energy law, in particular with respect to the further development of renewable energies and the funding for combined heat and power (CHP) plants.
What opportunities arise for operators of CHP plants? Team Consult has assessed the implications in a short study, the conclusions of our analysis can be found here (PDF download, in German). If you are interested in an English version of our analysis, please do not hesitate to contact us.
Short report about the lifecycle extension of batteries from electric vehicles through stationary storage
Electric mobility is gaining more and more relevance, which leads to an increased demand for batteries. As a result prices for battery cells have been increased recently by some automotive suppliers. A possibility for car manufacturers to avoid passing on higher costs to end customers is the extension of the life cycle of batteries. In that way additional revenues can be generated. A possibility for the lifecycle extension of batteries is the pooled usage in stationary large scale batteries.
A detailed description of these developments and possible consequences for investors and operators of conventional large scale battery projects is given in this report (PDF download, in German).
Results of the auctions for onshore wind energy
On October 19th, the German Federal Network Agency (Bundesnetzagentur) published statistical data for the fourth auction for onshore wind energy plants in 2018 (published in German). 62 bids were submitted to this auction according to the Renewable Energy Sources Act (EEG) 2017, which took place in October 2018. This is a significant decrease with respect to the previous round (91 bids), even though the tendered volume of 670 MW remained unchanged. 8% of the submitted bids had to be excluded from the auction. Although a slight increase with respect to the previous round (5%), this is still a comparably low value. All of the remaining 57 bids received an award, corresponding to a success rate of 92%.
The average award value amounted to 6.26 €ct/kWh. This is the highest value since the introduction of the auction scheme in May 2017. The bid limit was specified at 6.30 €ct/kWh according to the EEG 2017.
Results of the auctions for photovoltaic installations
On October 19th, the German Federal Network Agency (Bundesnetzagentur) published the results of the third auction for photovoltaic (PV) installations in 2018 (published in German). 76 bids were submitted to the auction, which took place in October 2018. For the first time in more than a year, this means an increase with respect to the previous round (59 bids).
Three of the submitted bids had to be excluded from the auction. The resulting exclusion rate of 4% is thus again very low. In the end, 37 bids received an award, corresponding to a success rate of 49% – the highest value so far. However, the required secondary bid bond was only paid in time for 30 bids. In contrast to their above-average success in previous rounds, projects in less-favored areas received only 5 awards in the current auction.
The average award value amounted to 4.69 €ct/kWh and has thus for the first time increased with respect to the previous round (4.59 €ct/kWh). The lowest successful bid value was 3.86 €ct/kWh. The bid limit was specified at 8.75 €ct/kWh according to the EEG 2017.
More than half of local distribution companies offer PV storage systems to end customers
Recently the mark of 100,000 installed PV battery storage systems has been exceeded in Germany. Battery storage for households is no niche anymore. As a consequence many energy providers offer these storage systems to their customers. Team Consult has analyzed the product range of supra-regional suppliers and incumbents in major German cities. This analysis of almost 90 energy providers shows that more than half (56 %) offer battery storage systems to household customers, often in combination with PV systems. 17 % of surveyed companies offer solely PV systems without battery storage. More than a quarter of energy providers include neither PV systems nor battery storage in their product range.
Advantages and disadvantages of PV and battery sales activities need to be weighed thoroughly. On the one hand, an increased self-supply of household customers might lead to decreasing energy sales. This development however can hardly be stopped by renouncing respective sales activities, due to the product availability from other companies. On the other hand, PV and battery sales activities provide new revenue streams. By offering related services, such as maintenance and monitoring, a long term customer retention can be ensured. In order to implement a successful sales strategy energy providers have to take into account individual aspects like customer structure and other existing sales activities.Figure: PV- and battery storage product range of local distribution companies in Germany
*partially in combination with PV system
Source: Analysis Team Consult
Team Consult evaluates relevance of the energy storage industry
Energy storage systems are getting more and more attention in the light of the advancing transition of the energy system. However, so far there has been no quantitative basis for the evaluation of the relevance of energy storage systems and especially of the energy storage industry. On behalf of the German energy storage association (BVES), Team Consult has conducted an industry analysis to close this knowledge gap.
The highlights of our findings have been published in the September edition of the German journal “Energiewirtschaftliche Tagesfragen“.
Analysis on changes for automatic frequency restoration reserve
On 12 July 2018, new tendering procedures for automatic frequency restoration reserve (aFRR) came into effect. Team Consult has analyzed the first auction rounds under the new market design. Among others, we observed a decrease in the average capacity per bid. Moreover, capacity prices increased during the short period in which capacity was allocated based on the new mixed price procedure.
Market participants should be prepared to quickly react to price fluctuations and, if necessary, adjust their bidding strategy in case of a prolonged shift of the significance of capacity and energy price.
These and further conclusions of our analysis can be found here (PDF download, in German). If you are interested in an English version of our analysis, please do not hesitate to contact us.
Storage monitoring by RWTH Aachen confirms Team Consult's analyses regarding the German PV storage market
On July 16th the RWTHA Aachen published its annual storage monitoring report 2018, which contains inter alia information regarding the development of PV storage systems in Germany. According to the report there have been 31,700 newly installed PV storage systems in 2017, more than ever before in one year. Thereby the total number of storage systems of this kind grows up to 85,000 in Germany by the end of 2017, resulting in a cumulative storage capacity of 280 MW and 600 MWh.
These figures are very congruent with analyses of the German storage market carried out by Team Consult for the German Energy Storage Association (BVES) earlier this year. Team Consult expects a continuation of the positive development of the PV storage market in 2018, leading to a cumulative storage power of roughly 385 MW.
Team Consult successfully supports in the CHP tendering process
On June 12th, the German Federal Network Agency (Bundesnetzagentur) published the results of the second auction for combined heat and power (CHP) plants according to the Combined Heat and Power Act (KWKG) (published in German). Prior to the auction, Team Consult advised a local distribution company regarding the investment decision for a CHP plant and supported the client in developing a bidding strategy. We are pleased that the jointly developed strategy was successful and that the bid of our client received an award.
15 bids were submitted to the auction, which took place in June 2018. This is a decrease with respect to the previous round (20 bids), even though the tendered volume of 93 MW was only slightly below the value of the previous auction (100 MW). With 96 MW, the total bid volume decreased by more than 50 % compared to the previous round (225 MW).
Only one submitted bid had to be excluded from the auction. All remaining 14 bids received an award, corresponding to a success rate of 93 %.
The average award value amounted to 4.31 €ct/kWh and has thus increased by about 6 % with respect to the previous round. The lowest award value was 2.99 €ct/kWh, the highest award value 5.20 €ct/kWh.
Publication of dena's pilot study "Integrated Energy Transition"
The German Energy Agency (Deutsche Energieagentur, dena) has published the final results of its pilot study “Integrated Energy Transition”. As a study partner, Team Consult has actively contributed to the study. The scope of the study was the development of scenarios for the transformation of the German energy system until 2050. Scenarios of a “pure electrification” were contrasted with scenarios of a “technology mix”. Key takeaways are:
- In order to reach its climate targets (80 to 95 per cent emission reduction by 2050 in comparison to 1990), Germany will have to speed up emission reduction significantly compared with previous years
- In the technology mix scenarios, climate targets can be met at lower costs than in the electrification scenarios
- In all scenarios Germany will remain a net importer of energy
- Gas-fired power plants and energy storages are essential contributors to system stability
- The climate targets in the transport sector require synthetic (carbon neutral) fuels, especially in the case of heavy duty trucks
We are convinced that the study will have a substantial impact on the energy policy debate in the years to come. We are prepared to discuss the energy economic and corporate strategy consequences with you.
A summary of the results can be found here (link to dena).
Interview with “energate messenger+” on the deal between E.ON and RWE
In the German energy industry, there is a continued discussion going on about the deal announced by E.ON and RWE. One particular question in dispute is whether (and, if so, to what extent) the new entities are becoming too powerful in their respective markets. Team Consult has analyzed the consequences of the deal for the German energy landscape within the scope of a multi-client study. In an interview with “energate messenger+”, Jens Völler, member of the management team of Team Consult and one of the authors of the study, gives insight into the results.
Significant growth of the German energy storage industry
Team Consult has analysed the German energy storage market in cooperation with the German Energy Storage Association (BVES). Christoph Hankeln presented the results of the study at the Energy Storage Europe in Düsseldorf on 13 March 2018.
The study shows that the German energy storage industry generated revenues of 4.6 billion Euros domestically and abroad in 2017. In 2018, the revenues are expected to exceed 5 billion Euros for the first time. Furthermore, the number of employees is very likely to rise over 12,000. A particularly strong growth is expected in the segment of industrial battery.
More information can be found here.
Energy & Natural Resources 2018 Virtual Round Table
The Energy & Natural Resources Roundtable 2018 features seven experts from around the world. In this roundtable, managing director Madjid Kübler and the other experts outline how to attract capital in the current stressed financial climate, discuss the current M&A landscape, and detail recent regulatory changes and developments. Highlighted topics include: hydropower, oil and gas, mining, and the trend towards cleaner energy sources.
Team Consult’s merit order model used to assess developments on the German electricity market
International commodity price reporting agency ICIS consulted Team Consult about our view on current developments on the German power market. Price modeling based on our in-house merit order model confirmed the current market interpretation that forward prices do not contain a risk premium for a potential accelerated coal-phase out. “It seems that power contracts account for definite developments such as the nuclear phase-out, but not necessarily for uncertain changes such as an accelerated coal phase-out,” Team Consult’s senior consultant Dr. David Heinze was quoted in the ICIS market assessment.
Article “Arbitration” published by “Lawyer Monthly” magazine
In an interview at “Lawyers Monthly” magazine, Madjid Kübler comments on the changes in arbitration proceedings and provides an answer to the question of how to prepare best for arbitration hearings.
Article on European LNG terminal infrastructure published
The energy industry will likely face the occurrence of a global oversupply of natural gas for the next years to come as further liquefaction capacities are under construction. Europe with its liquid trading hubs is well-positioned to receive additional LNG volumes due to surplus regasification capacity. However, regasification costs and access conditions of European LNG terminals vary greatly and might have a major commercial impact on future LNG volumes. These differences have been analysed by TEAM CONSULT in an article, which provides an overview of the LNG regasification infrastructure in the European Union and gives some brief insights on regasification tariffs as well.
Madjid Kübler as chairman at the FLAME 2017 in Amsterdam
As in previous years TEAM CONSULT will take an active role at the FLAME. Madjid Kübler will be chairman of the stream “Gas Demand & Competitiveness” and therefore be in discussion with several experts of the energy industry.
Europe’s largest gas event will be taking place on 8-11 May 2017 at the Okura Hotel in Amsterdam.
Industry professionals from across the globe will be meeting at FLAME and discuss the latest market trends, challenges and developments worldwide.
For more information click here
Presentation published on whether German gas storages are regaining importance as a provider of flexibility in Europe
In recent years, Europe and Germany have experienced an oversupply of gas storage capacity. In contrast, despite high filling levels in October 2016, we saw critical stock levels of the European and German gas storages in February 2017. These were the lowest levels in February since European-wide recording has been conducted by Gas Infrastructure Europe. In our presentation we identify and analyse the drivers for this development, which in sum led to these low stock levels.
Our analyses shows that German gas storages are regaining importance as a provider of flexibility in Europe. However, further developments, which can either have a positive or adverse effect on storages, have to be considered and analysed before the conclusion can be drawn that storages have seen the end of the dry spell.
The presentation was published on the energy information portal www.europeangashub.com and can also be downloaded free of charge via the link below.
Natural gas supply ensures security of supply of European energy systems
Low filling levels of European gas storages fuel the discussion on the security of gas supply in the winter season. Madjid Kübler, managing director of TEAM CONSULT, assesses the situation in a guest commentary for the energate messenger+ of 7 March 2017.
New Article on renewable energy auctions published
Since 2017, the German funding for electricity generated from wind, solar or biomass energy is determined by auctions. Auctions increase the cost pressure and pose new challenges to project developers and investors. Team Consult has identified several key aspects that should be considered from the initial project development decision until the final investment decision and realization of the project. Important factors are the required upfront investments, the total costs and the realization probability of the project, the bidding dynamics and the volume of the current and future auction rounds.
The highlights of our findings have been published in the March edition of the German journal “Energiewirtschaftliche Tagesfragen“.
Article on Dispute Resolution in Gas Contract Renegotiations published
Buyers’ strong desire for the transition from oil-indexation to gas hub pricing has been the driver for the disputes in Europe with some 100 billion cubic meters (around 3.5 trillion cubic feet) of annual contract quantities renegotiated, and billions of dollars in dispute. Europe's experience with renegotiations of long-term gas contracts may provide some lessons for the emerging Asian natural gas market which Team Consult discusses in an article.
New article about the development of battery storage in Germany published by Greentech Media
Germany plays a leading role when it comes to the deployment of battery storage. 2017 is expected to be a year with a significant increase of small and large scale battery systems. TEAM CONSULT estimates that the installed capacity will threefold by the end of 2017 compared to the previous year.
The article “Germany`s Banner Year for Big Batteries”, published at Greentech Media, focuses on these developments and the consequences for the profitability of battery storage projects.
New Article on renewable energy auctions published
Since 2017, the German funding for electricity generated from wind, solar or biomass energy is determined by auctions. This leads to new questions for market participants: How will the market environment develop? When is it expedient to make the upfront investments which are necessary to submit a bid? Team Consult has analyzed the results of the auctions for photovoltaics installations that have taken place so far. Our analysis shows that economies of scale play an important role, but the decisive factors for a successful bid are the proper timing of the bid submission and the optimal bidding strategy.
The highlights of our analysis have been published in the January edition of the German journal “Energie & Management“.
Large Scale Battery Storage for Power Grid Stabilization in Germany – Growth expected in 2017
Germany’s power industry will expand installed capacities for grid stabilization more than three-fold in 2017, reaching up to 200 MW end of 2017 (60 MW end of 2016).
This is resulting from a study composed by TEAM CONSULT analyzing the market of energy storage.
An article about this has been published by Thomson Reuters.
Study published on how much additional gas the North-West European gas market can absorb
At the moment, the energy industry is discussing the occurrence of a significant worldwide oversupply of natural gas. It is expected that the oversupply of gas will be the dominant situation also for the years to come and will be a key market driver for gas industry players. In a study, Team Consult finds that, if prices are right, the European electricity sector could absorb around 40 billion cubic meters (31 million tons per annum) of additional gas volumes per year by substituting coal-fired power generation.
The study was published on the energy information portals www.europeangashub.com, www.globallnghub.com and www.thecoalhub.com was quoted by Thomson Reuters. It can also be downloaded free of charge via the link below.
Full study for download in PDF format.
Energy Storage capable of linking sectors in the context of Energiewende
Christoph Hankeln, Business Unit Manager Energy Storage, has been interviewed about the findings of the TEAM CONSULT study “Energy Storage – Game Changer for the Energy Industry”. Within this study TEAM CONSULT analyses new technologies and solutions for the storage of energy in the context of the German energy transition.
New BWK article published (in German)
The article provides an overview on the developments and perspectives of the gas industry in the past year. 2015 turned out to be another turbulent year for the gas and energy industry and the sector continuous to face several challenges. For the future security of supply of Europe several pipeline projects were planned or rejected but intensely debated in any case. Tackling climate change took a new step forward after the UN Climate Change Conference in Paris which established the aim of limiting global warming to 2°C or even 1.5°C. Further important issues were discussions on the digitalisation of the energy industry as well as sector coupling. This will put gas in the heating market in direct competition to power from renewable energies. All of these developments have the potential to change the existing business models of energy suppliers. At the same time new opportunities appear on the horizon, e.g. by using LNG as a transport fuel.
New Article on Thermal Energy Storage/Power-to-Heat published
Local distribution companies increasingly invest in thermal energy storage systems in order to allow for an economic operation of their co-generation power stations. In this scope, the integration of a power-to-heat module (PtH-module) to use excess electricity is often discussed as well. Which parameters are relevant to the investment decision? A current short study of Team Consult provides first answers. According to the study, investing into thermal energy storage may be profitable in the current market environment, while the market conditions for power-to-heat providing negative balancing energy have deteriorated.
The highlights of the results of the study have been published in the June edition of the “Zeitung für kommunale Wirtschaft“. For further information, please contact us by phone +49 30 400 556-0 or mail email@example.com. David Heinze will be glad to address your questions.
Madjid Kübler as speaker at the LNGgc Asia conference 2016
The LNGgc Asia conference will be taking place in Singapore from 1st until 3rd March 2016. The conference is the leading Asian LNG conference to bring together emerging buyers, traders, key suppliers and LNG project developers from the emerging economies with the need for gas and LNG. Madjid Kübler will be representing TEAM CONSULT and will be speaking about “Impact of oil prices on gas markets and on prevailing pricing mechanisms”.
For more information click here
TEAM CONSULT at the DVGW Diskurs 2015, 9 September in Bonn
“Technical innovations are driven by changes”. Under this headline the DVGW Diskurs will discuss the perspectives for gas from national and international points of view. The event is moderated by Dr. Heiko Lohmann, publisher and author of ener|gate Gasmarkt. TEAM CONSULT will be represented by Madjid Kübler who will give a presentation on “Gas from the international perspective”. Thereby the trends on the international LNG markets and the future supply situation of natural gas in Europe will be highlighted.
For more information click here
TEAM CONSULT at EUROFORUM "Versorgungssicherheit Gas" (Security of supply in the gas sector)
The EUROFORUM conference "Versorgungssicherheit Gas" will be taking place in Hamburg on 1st and 2nd July 2015. TEAM CONSULT will be actively supporting the event with Mr Jörg Blaurock as a speaker and Mr Bernhard Witschen as the presenter of the conference. Mr Blaurock will talk about the topic of "new sources of supply: where will gas come from in the future if not Russia?".
You can find more information about the event at:
New BWK article published
TEAM CONSULT expands its business premises in Berlin
TEAM CONSULT expands its business premises in Berlin-Mitte. Since 1st March 2015, the team has enjoyed new offices. Also the number of employees has increased. Since March two new employees support the team.